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About this Nanos Research federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Nanos Research from September 18, 2026 to October 9, 2026 (four-week rolling poll). The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,034 Canadian respondents via live telephone interviews.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±3.0%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

The regional breakdown of this poll was not made publicly available.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Nanos Research (October 2026), the Liberal Party remains stable at 49%, the Conservative Party climbs two points from 28% to 30% (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 11%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 49% LPC 30% ▲2 CPC 11% NDP 6% BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 2% PPC Nanos Research federal poll | 2026-10-09 338Canada.com
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263 LPC 62 CPC 9 NDP 7 BQ 2 GPC 172 seats NL 7 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 10 QC 69 7 2 ON 99 19 3 1 MB 7 5 2 SK 9 5 AB 22 13 2 BC 35 5 2 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Nanos Research federal poll October 9, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Nanos Research




Preferred PM 61% ▲2 Carney 21% ▲1 Poilievre 10% Don't know 3% ▼1 Lewis 2% ▼1 May 2% Blanchet 2% Bernier Nanos Research federal poll | 2026-10-09 338Canada.com
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Nanos Research Preferred PM tracker 61% 21%2026-10-09 59% 20%2026-10-02 62% 20%2026-09-25 59% 21%2026-09-18 56% 21%2026-09-11 55% 21%2026-09-04 51% 21%2026-08-28 50% 20%2026-08-21 53% 18%2026-08-14 54% 18%2026-08-07 ◻︎Carney ◻︎Others ◻︎Don't know ◻︎Poilievre
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