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Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: August 23, 2026
LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection44.7% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPs172
Current seat projection219 [177-256]

Infolettre Qc125

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 23, 2026 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 10.4 seat/% 219 [177-256] 45% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
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Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

× LPC 219 [177-256] August 23, 2026 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 7/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 8/10 QC 43/78 ON 99/122 MB 7/14 SK 4/14 AB 7/37 BC 27/43 YT NWT NU
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Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | August 23, 2026

35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 40.3% 2025 43.8% 44.7% ± 4.4% Max. 49.2% Probabilities % LPC August 23, 2026
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Seat projection | August 23, 2026

125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats Min. 177 219 Max. 256 Probabilities % LPC August 23, 2026
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List of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Districts and MPs Current party Projection
1.
Serge Cormier
L LPC safe
2.
Tom Osborne
L LPC safe
3.
Marie-France Lalonde
L LPC safe
4.
Darren Fisher
L LPC safe
5.
Francis Scarpaleggia
L LPC safe
6. L LPC safe
7.
Rob Oliphant
L LPC safe
8.
Lena Metlege Diab
L LPC safe
9.
Shaun Chen
L LPC safe
10. L LPC safe
11.
Mark Carney
L LPC safe
12.
Sean Casey
L LPC safe
13.
Patricia Lattanzio
L LPC safe
14.
Ginette Petitpas Taylor
L LPC safe
15.
Wade Grant
L LPC safe
16.
Leslie Church
L LPC safe
17. L LPC safe
18. L LPC safe
19. LPC safe
20.
David McGuinty
L LPC safe
21. L LPC safe
22. L LPC safe
23.
Dominic LeBlanc
L LPC safe
24.
Taleeb Noormohamed
L LPC safe
25. L LPC safe
26.
Alexandra Mendes
L LPC safe
27.
Kody Blois
L LPC safe
28.
Ginette Lavack
L LPC safe
29.
Terry Duguid
L LPC safe
30. L LPC safe
31.
Greg Fergus
L LPC safe
32.
Michael Coteau
L LPC safe
33.
Julie Dabrusin
L LPC safe
34.
Mark Gerretsen
L LPC safe
35.
Steven MacKinnon
L LPC safe
36.
Jenna Sudds
L LPC safe
37.
Melanie Joly
L LPC safe
38.
Sameer Zuberi
L LPC safe
39.
James Maloney
L LPC safe
40. L LPC safe
41.
Kevin Lamoureux
L LPC safe
42.
Eric St-Pierre
L LPC safe
43. L LPC safe
44. LPC safe
45. L LPC safe
46.
Anita Vandenbeld
L LPC safe
47.
Paul Connors
L LPC safe
48.
Evan Solomon
L LPC safe
49. L LPC safe
50.
Joanne Thompson
L LPC safe
51.
Danielle Martin
L LPC safe
52. L LPC safe
53.
Abdelhaq Sari
L LPC safe
54.
Emmanuella Lambropoulos
L LPC safe
55. L LPC safe
56.
Peter Schiefke
L LPC safe
57.
Shannon Miedema
L LPC safe
58.
Bardish Chagger
L LPC safe
59. L LPC safe
60.
Jennifer McKelvie
L LPC safe
61. L LPC safe
62.
Joel Lightbound
L LPC safe
63.
Will Greaves
L LPC safe
64.
Hedy Fry
L LPC safe
65.
Arielle Kayabaga
L LPC safe
66.
Angelo Iacono
L LPC safe
67.
Sophie Chatel
L LPC safe
68. L LPC safe
69.
Annie Koutrakis
L LPC safe
70. L LPC safe
71.
Marjorie Michel
L LPC safe
72.
Peter Fragiskatos
L LPC safe
73.
Rachel Bendayan
L LPC safe
74.
Carlos Leitao
L LPC safe
75.
Dominique O’Rourke
L LPC safe
76.
Elisabeth Briere
L LPC safe
77.
Steven Guilbeault
L LPC safe
78. L LPC safe
79.
Stephanie McLean
L LPC safe
80.
Francois-Philippe Champagne
L LPC safe
81. L LPC safe
82.
Mike Kelloway
L LPC safe
83. L LPC safe
84. L LPC safe
85.
Faycal El-Khoury
L LPC safe
86.
Sherry Romanado
L LPC safe
87.
Karina Gould
L LPC safe
88.
Emma Harrison
L LPC safe
89.
Jessica Fancy-Landry
L LPC safe
90.
Marianne Dandurand
L LPC safe
91. L LPC safe
92.
Doug Eyolfson
L LPC safe
93.
Yvan Baker
L LPC safe
94.
John Zerucelli
L LPC safe
95.
Louis Villeneuve
L LPC safe
96.
Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault
L LPC safe
97.
Giovanna Mingarelli
L LPC safe
98.
Kent McDonald
L LPC safe
99.
Marie-Gabrielle Menard
L LPC safe
100.
Heath MacDonald
L LPC safe
101.
Maggie Chi
L LPC safe
102. L LPC safe
103.
Chris Bittle
L LPC safe
104.
Juanita Nathan
L LPC safe
105.
Ali Ehsassi
L LPC safe
106.
Viviane Lapointe
L LPC safe
107.
Tim Hodgson
L LPC safe
108.
Fares Al Soud
L LPC safe
109. L LPC safe
110.
Brendan Hanley
L LPC safe
111.
Eleanor Olszewski
L LPC safe
112.
Iqwinder Gaheer
L LPC likely
113.
Rebecca Alty
L LPC likely
114.
Julie Dzerowicz
L LPC likely
115.
Ryan Turnbull
L LPC likely
116.
Adam van Koeverden
L LPC likely
117.
Charles Sousa
L LPC likely
118.
Sean Fraser
L LPC likely
119.
Caroline Desrochers
L LPC likely
120.
Sima Acan
L LPC likely
121. L LPC likely
122.
Anthony Housefather
L LPC likely
123.
Madeleine Chenette
L LPC likely
124.
Yasir Naqvi
L LPC likely
125. L LPC likely
126.
Jill McKnight
L LPC likely
127.
Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba
L LPC likely
128.
Lisa Hepfner
L LPC likely
129.
Linda Lapointe
L LPC likely
130.
Bruce Fanjoy
L LPC likely
131.
Anita Anand
L LPC likely
132.
Helena Jaczek
L LPC likely
133.
Vince Gasparro
L LPC likely
134.
Christopher Malette
L LPC likely
135.
Jean-Yves Duclos
L LPC likely
136.
Wade Wei Lin Chang
L LPC likely
137. L LPC likely
138.
Marcus Powlowski
L LPC likely
139.
Bobby Morrissey
L LPC likely
140. L LPC likely
141.
Pauline Rochefort
L LPC likely
142. L LPC likely
143.
Maninder Sidhu
L LPC likely
144.
Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
145. L LPC likely
146.
Corey Hogan
L LPC likely
147. L LPC likely
148. L LPC likely
149.
Sukh Dhaliwal
L LPC likely
150. L LPC likely
151.
Randeep Sarai
L LPC likely
152.
Philip Earle
L LPC likely
153. C LPC likely
154.
Gurbux Saini
L LPC likely
155.
Sonia Sidhu
L LPC likely
156. L LPC likely
157. L LPC likely
158.
Kristina Tesser Derksen
L LPC likely
159.
Jacques Ramsay
L LPC likely
160.
Amandeep Sodhi
L LPC likely
161.
Steeve Lavoie
L LPC likely
162. C LPC likely
163. L LPC likely
164. C LPC likely
165. L LPC likely
166.
Stephen Fuhr
L LPC likely
167. C LPC likely
168.
Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
169.
Timothy Watchorn
L LPC leaning
170.
Philip Lawrence
C LPC leaning
171. L LPC leaning
172.
Sandra Cobena
C LPC leaning
173.
Fred Davies
C LPC leaning
174.
Dalwinder Gill
C LPC leaning
175. C LPC leaning
176. C LPC leaning
177.
Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]
L LPC leaning
178. C LPC leaning
179. C LPC leaning
180.
Amarjeet Gill
C LPC leaning
181.
Adam Chambers
C LPC leaning
182.
Connie Cody
C LPC leaning
183.
Rebecca Chartrand
L LPC leaning
184.
Kelly McCauley
C LPC leaning
185.
Carol Anstey
C LPC leaning
186. C LPC leaning
187. C LPC leaning
188. C LPC leaning
189.
Scott Reid
C LPC leaning
190.
Raquel Dancho
C LPC leaning
191.
Natilien Joseph
L LPC leaning
192.
Roman Baber
C LPC leaning
193.
Greg McLean
C Toss up LPC/CPC
194. C Toss up LPC/CPC
195.
Rhonda Kirkland
C Toss up LPC/CPC
196. C Toss up LPC/CPC
197.
Dean Allison
C Toss up LPC/CPC
198. C Toss up LPC/CPC
199.
Scott Aitchison
C Toss up LPC/CPC
200.
Terry Dowdall
C Toss up LPC/CPC
201. C Toss up LPC/CPC
202. C Toss up LPC/CPC
203.
Tamara Kronis
C Toss up LPC/CPC
204. L Toss up LPC/NDP
205.
Warren Steinley
C Toss up LPC/CPC
206.
Vincent Neil Ho
C Toss up LPC/CPC
207. C Toss up LPC/CPC
208. C Toss up LPC/CPC
209. C Toss up LPC/CPC
210.
Michael Kram
C Toss up LPC/CPC
211.
Jagsharan Singh Mahal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
212.
Corey Tochor
C Toss up LPC/CPC
213.
Aslam Rana
L Toss up LPC/NDP
214. C Toss up LPC/CPC
215.
Clifford Small
C Toss up LPC/CPC
216.
Ben Lobb
C Toss up LPC/CPC
217. C Toss up LPC/CPC
218.
John Williamson
C Toss up LPC/CPC
219. C Toss up LPC/CPC
220.
Tatiana Auguste
L Toss up LPC/BQ
221. C Toss up LPC/CPC
222.
Eric Melillo
C Toss up LPC/CPC
223.
Rob Moore
C Toss up LPC/CPC
224.
Andreanne Larouche
B Toss up LPC/BQ
225.
John Nater
C Toss up LPC/CPC
226.
Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]
L Toss up LPC/NDP
227.
Sukhman Singh Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC
228. C Toss up LPC/CPC
229. Toss up LPC/BQ
230.
Kevin Waugh
C Toss up LPC/CPC
231. C Toss up LPC/CPC
232.
Ziad Aboultaif
C Toss up LPC/CPC
233.
Billy Morin
C Toss up LPC/CPC
234.
Amanpreet Singh Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC
235. C Toss up LPC/CPC
236.
Lianne Rood
C Toss up LPC/CPC
237.
Mario Beaulieu
B Toss up LPC/BQ
238.
Tim Uppal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
239.
Arpan Khanna
C Toss up LPC/CPC
240.
Patrick Bonin
B BQ leaning
241.
Pat Kelly
C CPC leaning
242.
Jacob Mantle
C CPC leaning
243.
Éric Lefebvre
C CPC leaning
244. C CPC leaning
245. C CPC leaning
246. L CPC leaning
247.
Jean-Denis Garon
B BQ leaning
248.
Alexandre Boulerice
I NDP leaning
249. B BQ leaning
250.
Michelle Rempel Garner
C CPC leaning
251. B BQ leaning
252. C NDP leaning
253. C CPC leaning
254. C CPC leaning
255.
Kelly DeRidder
C Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
256.
David McKenzie
C CPC leaning
257.
John Brassard
C CPC leaning
258. C CPC leaning
259.
Don Davies
N NDP leaning
260. C CPC leaning
261.
Jenny Kwan
N NDP leaning
262.
Richard Bragdon
C CPC leaning
263.
Marie-Helene Gaudreau
B BQ leaning
264.
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas
B BQ likely
265. C NDP leaning
266.
Chris Lewis
C CPC likely
267.
Christine Normandin
B BQ likely
268.
Leslyn Lewis
C CPC likely
269. BQ likely
270.
Michael Guglielmin
C CPC likely
271. B BQ likely
272.
Shuv Majumdar
C CPC likely
273. C CPC likely
274.
Leah Gazan
N NDP likely
275. C CPC likely
276.
Gabriel Hardy
C Toss up CPC/BQ
277.
Harbinder Gill
C NDP likely
278.
Mark Strahl
C CPC likely
279.
Kurt Holman
C NDP likely
280. C CPC likely
281.
Jasraj Singh Hallan
C CPC likely
282. B BQ likely
283.
Rheal Fortin
B BQ likely
284.
Rachael Thomas
C CPC likely
285.
Kyle Seeback
C CPC likely
286. C CPC likely
287.
Anna Roberts
C CPC likely
288.
Yves-Francois Blanchet
B BQ likely
289. C CPC likely
290.
Jacques Gourde
C CPC likely
291.
Elizabeth May
G GPC likely
292.
Martin Champoux
B BQ likely
293.
Brad Redekopp
C CPC likely
294.
Mario Simard
B BQ likely
295. B BQ likely
296. C CPC likely
297. C CPC likely
298.
Gabriel Ste-Marie
B BQ likely
299.
Gord Johns
N NDP likely
300. C CPC likely
301.
Stephanie Kusie
C CPC likely
302. C CPC likely
303. B BQ likely
304.
Luc Theriault
B BQ safe
305.
Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe
B BQ safe
306.
Melissa Lantsman
C CPC safe
307. C CPC safe
308.
Sebastien Lemire
B BQ safe
309.
Tom Kmiec
C CPC safe
310.
Andrew Scheer
C CPC safe
311. C CPC safe
312.
Colin Reynolds
C NDP leaning
313.
Grant Jackson
C CPC safe