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New Democratic Party

Latest update: August 23, 2026
LeaderAvi Lewis
National popular vote in 20256.3%
Current vote projection10.7% ± 2.8%
Current number of MPs5
Current seat projection14 [7-18]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 23, 2026 20 15 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada 2.2 seat/% 14 [7-18] 11% ± 3% 2019 2021 2025
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Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ NDP 14 [7-18] August 23, 2026 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 1/78 ON 2/122 MB 2/14 SK 0/14 AB 2/37 BC 6/43 YT NWT NU
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Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | August 23, 2026

4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2025 6.3% Min. 8.0% ▼ 10.7% ± 2.8% ▼ Max. 13.5% ▼ Probabilities % NDP August 23, 2026
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Seat projection | August 23, 2026

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 7 ▼ 2021 7 seats 14 ▼ Max. 18 ▼ Probabilities % NDP August 23, 2026
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List of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Districts and MPs Current party Projection
1.
Edmonton Strathcona
Heather McPherson
 N NDP safe
2.
Courtenay—Alberni
Gord Johns
 N NDP likely
3.
Winnipeg Centre
Leah Gazan
 N NDP likely
4.
Windsor West
Harbinder Gill
 C NDP likely
5.
London—Fanshawe
Kurt Holman
 C NDP likely
6.
Vancouver East
Jenny Kwan
 N NDP leaning
7.
Vancouver Kingsway
Don Davies
 N NDP leaning
8.
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
Alexandre Boulerice
 I NDP leaning
9.
Elmwood—Transcona
Colin Reynolds
 C NDP leaning
10.
Skeena—Bulkley Valley
Ellis Ross
 C NDP leaning
11.
North Island—Powell River
Aaron Gunn
 C NDP leaning
12.
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Jeff Kibble
 C NDP leaning
13.
Nunavut
Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]
 L Toss up LPC/NDP
14.
Edmonton Griesbach
Kerry Diotte
 C Toss up CPC/NDP
15.
Hamilton Centre
Aslam Rana
 L Toss up LPC/NDP
16.
New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville
Jake Sawatzky
 L Toss up LPC/NDP
17.
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski
Rebecca Chartrand
 L LPC leaning
18.
Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park
Karim Bardeesy
 L LPC leaning
19.
Kenora—Kiiwetinoong
Eric Melillo
 C Toss up LPC/CPC
20.
Saskatoon West
Brad Redekopp
 C CPC likely
21.
Nanaimo—Ladysmith
Tamara Kronis
 C Toss up LPC/CPC
22.
Ottawa Centre
Yasir Naqvi
 L LPC likely
23.
Berthier—Maskinongé
Yves Perron
 B BQ likely
24.
Davenport
Julie Dzerowicz
 L LPC likely
25.
Northwest Territories
Rebecca Alty
 L LPC likely
26.
Burnaby Central
Wade Wei Lin Chang
 L LPC likely
27.
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
Buckley Belanger
 L LPC safe