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About this Liaison Strategies federal poll


This federal poll was fielded by Liaison Strategies in October 2026, with a middle field date of October 4, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,263 Canadian respondents via IVR technology (automated calls).

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Liaison Strategies (September 2026), the Liberal Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), the Conservative Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), and the New Democratic Party remains stable at 15%.

You can read more information on this poll here.


Back to all federal polls
Canada 45% ▼1 LPC 29% ▲1 CPC 15% NDP 6% BQ 2% GPC 2% PPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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241 LPC 63 CPC 20 BQ 17 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats NL 7 PEI 4 NS 11 NB 9 1 QC 49 20 8 1 ON 101 17 3 1 MB 7 5 2 SK 9 5 AB 18 17 2 BC 29 8 5 1 YT NWT NU 338Canada seat projections 338Canada seat projection estimate Based on Liaison Strategies federal poll October 4, 2026 🍁
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Note: Single-poll projections can be fun thought experiments, but individual polls can swing wildly and occasionally produce surprising seat counts. For a clearer picture of the race, always trust the average.

Past polls from Liaison Strategies




Breakdown by region

Atlantic Canada 56% ▲1 LPC 21% ▲1 CPC 14% ▼1 NDP 5% ▲2 GPC 2% ▲1 PPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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Quebec 44% ▼1 LPC 25% BQ 16% ▲2 CPC 13% ▲1 NDP 1% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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Ontario 49% ▼1 LPC 33% ▲1 CPC 15% ▲1 NDP 2% ▼1 GPC 1% PPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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Manitoba/Saskatchewan 40% ▲3 CPC 39% ▼2 LPC 12% ▼2 NDP 5% ▲2 GPC 3% ▲1 PPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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Alberta 45% ▼1 CPC 38% ▲3 LPC 13% ▲1 NDP 3% ▼1 PPC 1% ▼1 GPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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British Columbia 42% ▼2 LPC 28% ▲1 CPC 24% ▲1 NDP 2% ▼1 GPC 2% ▼1 PPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by gender

Female voters 50% ▼2 LPC 24% ▲1 CPC 17% ▲1 NDP 6% BQ 2% PPC 1% ▲1 GPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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Male voters 42% ▼1 LPC 35% ▲1 CPC 14% ▲1 NDP 5% BQ 3% GPC 1% PPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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Breakdown by age group

18-34 years old 36% ▼1 LPC 26% ▲1 CPC 25% ▲1 NDP 8% ▼1 BQ 2% ▼1 GPC 2% PPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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35-49 years old 45% ▼1 LPC 34% ▲1 CPC 14% ▲1 NDP 4% BQ 2% GPC 1% PPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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50-64 years old 44% ▼2 LPC 32% ▲2 CPC 14% ▲1 NDP 3% ▼1 BQ 3% ▲1 PPC 2% GPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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65+ years old 57% ▼2 LPC 25% ▲1 CPC 8% ▲1 NDP 7% ▲2 BQ 2% GPC 1% PPC Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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Government approval 64% ▼2 Approve 29% ▲2 Disapprove 7% Neutral/Unsure Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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Liaison Strategies Government approval tracker 64% 29%2026-10-04 66% 27%2026-09-27 64% 29%2026-09-20 65% 28%2026-09-13 66% 27%2026-09-06 66% 26%2026-08-30 64% 27%2026-08-23 59% 31%2026-08-16 60% 31%2026-08-09 57% 33%2026-08-01 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove
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Impression / favourability of Pierre Poilievre 55% ▲2 Negative / unfavourable 32% ▼2 Positive / favourable 13% Neutral / Unsure Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Pierre Poilievre 32% 55%2026-10-04 34% 53%2026-09-27 36% 51%2026-09-20 35% 51%2026-09-13 36% 51%2026-09-06 34% 54%2026-08-30 33% 55%2026-08-23 34% 54%2026-08-16 35% 53%2026-08-09 34% 53%2026-08-01 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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Impression / favourability of Avi Lewis 38% ▼1 Neutral / Unsure 35% ▲2 Positive / favourable 27% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable Liaison Strategies federal poll | 2026-10-04 338Canada.com
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Impression / favourability tracker, Avi Lewis 35% 27%2026-10-04 33% 28%2026-09-27 31% 30%2026-09-20 32% 30%2026-09-13 31% 30%2026-09-06 30% 31%2026-08-30 30% 31%2026-08-23 31% 30%2026-08-16 31% 29%2026-08-09 30% 30%2026-08-01 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable
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