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Quebec Conservative Party

Latest update: August 28, 2026
LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection14.9% ± 2.5%
Current number of MNA's1
Current seat projection11 [5-16]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 28, 2026 20 15 10 5 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2023 1.9 seat/% [5-16] 15% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | August 28, 2026

9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 12.5% ▼ 2022 12.9% 14.9% ± 2.5% ▼ Max. 17.4% ▼ Probabilities % CPQ August 28, 2026

Seat projection | August 28, 2026

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2022 0 seats Min. 5 ▼ 11 ▼ Max. 16 ▼ Probabilities % CPQ August 28, 2026
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The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Conservative Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Bellechasse PCQ safe 1 BELL 2. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 2 BEAN 3. La Peltrie PCQ likely 3 LAPE 4. Portneuf PCQ likely 4 PORT 5. Chauveau PCQ likely 5 CHAU 6. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely 6 BEAS 7. Montmorency PCQ leaning 7 MOMO 8. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning 8 LOTF 9. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up CAQ/CPQ 9 CHCH 10. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 10 VALR 11. Charlesbourg Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 11 CHAR 12. Lévis Toss up CAQ/CPQ 12 LEVI 13. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 13 NICO 14. Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ 14 DRUM 15. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 15 CÔDS 16. Arthabaska-L’Érable Leaning PQ 16 ARTH 17. Mégantic Leaning CAQ 17 MEGA 18. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Toss up PQ/CAQ 18 MLGL 19. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ 19 LHEB 20. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Likely PQ 20 CXCB 21. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 21 JLES 22. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 22 CHPN 23. Chomedey Safe LIB 23 CHOM 24. Chicoutimi Likely PQ 24 CHIC 25. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 25 DAMC 26. Nelligan Safe LIB 26 NELL 27. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 27 BALD 28. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 28 LVSM 29. Jean-Talon Likely PQ 29 JTAL 30. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 30 VAUD 31. Rousseau Toss up PQ/CAQ 31 ROUS 32. Fabre Likely LIB 32 FABR 33. Maskinongé Toss up PQ/CAQ 33 MASK 34. Daniel-Johnson Likely CAQ 34 DAJO 35. Soulanges Likely LIB 35 SOUL 36. Papineau Likely CAQ 36 PAPI 37. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 37 MARG 38. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 38 STLR 39. LaFontaine Safe LIB 39 LAFO 40. Richmond Leaning CAQ 40 RCHM 41. Trois-Rivières Leaning CAQ 41 TRIV 42. Acadie Safe LIB 42 ACAD 43. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 43 JACA 44. Taschereau QS leaning 44 TASH 45. Duplessis Toss up PQ/CAQ 45 DUPL 46. Sanguinet Likely PQ 46 SANG 47. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 47 LASJ 48. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 48 HUNT 49. Gatineau Leaning LIB 49 GATI 50. Berthier Likely PQ 50 BRTH 51. Les Plaines Toss up PQ/CAQ 51 LPLA 52. Argenteuil Likely PQ 52 ARGE 53. Vimont-Auteuil Leaning LIB 53 VIMO 54. Marquette Safe LIB 54 MARQ 55. Bellefeuille Toss up PQ/CAQ 55 BELF 56. Pontiac Safe LIB 56 PONT 57. Châteauguay Likely LIB 57 CHAT 58. Mirabel Toss up PQ/CAQ 58 MIRA 59. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 59 JMVI 60. Iberville Leaning CAQ 60 IBER 61. Jonquière Likely PQ 61 JONQ 62. Roberval Likely PQ 62 ROBV 63. Dubuc Likely PQ 63 DUBU 64. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 64 NODG 65. Chapleau Likely CAQ 65 CHAP 66. Abitibi-Est Toss up PQ/CAQ 66 ABIE 67. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 67 BROM 68. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Leaning PQ 68 RDLT 69. Sainte-Rose Leaning CAQ 69 STRO 70. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 70 WSTL 71. Saint-François Likely PQ 71 STFR 72. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 72 MROU 73. Granby Likely CAQ 73 GRBY 74. Abitibi-Ouest Leaning CAQ 74 ABIO 75. Laval-des-Rapides Toss up LIB/PQ 75 LVDR 76. Blainville Toss up PQ/CAQ 76 BLAI 77. La Pinière Safe LIB 77 LAPI 78. Prévost Likely PQ 78 PREV 79. Mille-Îles Likely LIB 79 MILI 80. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 80 BEAU 81. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 81 BOUS 82. Deux-Montagnes Leaning PQ 82 DMON 83. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB 83 ANLR 84. Saint-Jérôme Leaning PQ 84 STJR 85. René-Lévesque Toss up PQ/CAQ 85 RENE 86. Vachon Likely PQ 86 VACH 87. Saint-Hyacinthe Leaning PQ 87 STHY 88. La Prairie Leaning CAQ 88 LAPR 89. Hull Safe LIB 89 HULL 90. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely CAQ 90 ROUY 91. Labelle Likely PQ 91 LABL 92. Richelieu Likely PQ 92 RCHL 93. Bertrand Likely PQ 93 BERT 94. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 94 LASS 95. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 95 GROU 96. Masson Toss up PQ/CAQ 96 MASS 97. Ungava Toss up PQ/CAQ 97 UNGA 98. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 98 PATR 99. Saint-Jean Likely PQ 99 STJN 100. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 100 CHBY 101. Viau Safe LIB 101 VIAU 102. Joliette Safe PQ 102 JOLI 103. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 103 MAMA 104. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 104 CAML 105. Borduas Leaning CAQ 105 BORD 106. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 106 MVIC 107. Repentigny Toss up PQ/CAQ 107 REPE 108. Verchères Leaning PQ 108 VERC 109. Laurier-Dorion Toss up LIB/QS 109 LAUD 110. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 110 LAPO 111. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/QS 111 SHSA 112. Verdun Likely LIB 112 VERD 113. Sherbrooke Leaning PQ 113 SHER 114. Taillon Likely PQ 114 TAIL 115. Gaspé Safe PQ 115 GASP 116. Bonaventure Safe PQ 116 BONA 117. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 117 ORFO 118. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning 118 HOMA 119. Rimouski Safe PQ 119 RIMO 120. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 120 MAUR 121. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 121 ROSE 122. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 122 SMSJ 123. Montarville Leaning CAQ 123 MTRV 124. Mercier QS safe 124 MERC 125. Gouin QS safe 125 GOUI 126. Terrebonne Toss up PQ/CAQ 126 TERR 127. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 127 IDLM 338Canada Quebec projection Updated August 28, 2026
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Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Bellechasse
Stéphanie Lachance
 CA PCQ safe
2.
Beauce-Nord
Luc Provençal
 CA PCQ safe
3.
La Peltrie
Éric Caire
 CA PCQ likely
4.
Portneuf
Vincent Caron
 CA PCQ likely
5.
Chauveau
Sylvain Lévesque
 CA PCQ likely
6.
Beauce-Sud
Samuel Poulin
 CA PCQ likely
7.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ leaning
8.
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Isabelle Lecours
 CA PCQ leaning
9.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Martine Biron
 CA Toss up CAQ/CPQ
10.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Mario Asselin
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
11.
Charlesbourg
Jonatan Julien
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
12.
Lévis
Bernard Drainville
 CA Toss up CAQ/CPQ
13.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Donald Martel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
14.
Drummond–Bois-Francs
Sébastien Schneeberger
 CA Leaning PQ
15.
Côte-du-Sud
Mathieu Rivest
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
16.
Arthabaska-L’Érable
Alex Boissonneault
 PQ Leaning PQ
17.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Leaning CAQ
18.
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie
Vacant
 Toss up PQ/CAQ
19.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
20.
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
Kariane Bourassa
 CA Likely PQ
21.
Jean-Lesage
Sol Zanetti
 QS Toss up PQ/QS
22.
Champlain
Sonia LeBel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ