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Quebec Conservative Party

Latest update: October 6, 2026
LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202620.7%
Current vote projection20.7% ± 1.0%
Current number of MNA's19
Current seat projection19 [19-19]

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 6, 2026 25 20 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2026 1.1 seat/% [19-19] 21% ± 1% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | October 6, 2026

18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 19.7% ▼ 20.7% ± 1.0% ▼ Max. 21.7% ▼ Probabilities % CPQ October 6, 2026

Seat projection | October 6, 2026

19 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Probabilities % CPQ October 6, 2026
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The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Conservative Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Bellechasse PCQ safe 1 BELL 2. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 2 BEAN 3. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 3 BEAS 4. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ safe 4 LOTF 5. Portneuf PCQ safe 5 PORT 6. La Peltrie PCQ safe 6 LAPE 7. Chauveau PCQ safe 7 CHAU 8. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ safe 8 CHCH 9. Montmorency PCQ safe 9 MOMO 10. Côte-du-Sud PCQ safe 10 CÔDS 11. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré PCQ safe 11 CXCB 12. Lévis PCQ safe 12 LEVI 13. Charlesbourg PCQ safe 13 CHAR 14. Vanier-Les Rivières PCQ safe 14 VALR 15. Nicolet-Bécancour PCQ safe 15 NICO 16. Mégantic PCQ likely 16 MEGA 17. Arthabaska-L’Érable PCQ likely 17 ARTH 18. Louis-Hébert PCQ leaning 18 LHEB 19. Champlain Toss up PQ/CPQ 19 CHPN 20. Drummond–Bois-Francs Toss up PQ/CPQ 20 DRUM 21. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 21 LVSM 22. Maskinongé Likely PQ 22 MASK 23. Huntingdon Leaning PQ 23 HUNT 24. Richmond Likely PQ 24 RCHM 25. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Likely PQ 25 MLGL 26. Dubuc Likely PQ 26 DUBU 27. Roberval Likely PQ 27 ROBV 28. Daniel-Johnson Likely PQ 28 DAJO 29. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 29 ABIE 30. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ 30 PAPI 31. Jean-Lesage QS safe 31 JLES 32. Saint-François Leaning PQ 32 STFR 33. Ungava Likely PQ 33 UNGA 34. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Safe PQ 34 RDLT 35. Argenteuil Likely PQ 35 ARGE 36. Rousseau Safe PQ 36 ROUS 37. Bellefeuille Safe PQ 37 BELF 38. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 38 LASJ 39. Iberville Safe PQ 39 IBER 40. Berthier Safe PQ 40 BRTH 41. Les Plaines Safe PQ 41 LPLA 42. Mirabel Safe PQ 42 MIRA 43. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 43 DAMC 44. Duplessis Safe PQ 44 DUPL 45. Prévost Safe PQ 45 PREV 46. Labelle Safe PQ 46 LABL 47. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 47 CHIC 48. Richelieu Safe PQ 48 RCHL 49. L’Assomption Safe PQ 49 LASS 50. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Safe PQ 50 ROUY 51. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 51 STJR 52. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 52 ABIO 53. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 53 TRIV 54. Chomedey Safe LIB 54 CHOM 55. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ 55 STHY 56. Gatineau Safe LIB 56 GATI 57. Soulanges Safe LIB 57 SOUL 58. Granby Safe PQ 58 GRBY 59. Joliette Safe PQ 59 JOLI 60. Fabre Safe LIB 60 FABR 61. Masson Safe PQ 61 MASS 62. Jonquière Leaning PQ 62 JONQ 63. Saint-Jean Safe PQ 63 STJN 64. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 64 BROM 65. Blainville Likely PQ 65 BLAI 66. Chapleau Safe LIB 66 CHAP 67. Beauharnois Safe PQ 67 BEAU 68. Jean-Talon Leaning LIB 68 JTAL 69. Sanguinet Safe PQ 69 SANG 70. Terrebonne Safe PQ 70 TERR 71. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 71 BALD 72. Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ 72 DMON 73. Nelligan Safe LIB 73 NELL 74. Verchères Safe PQ 74 VERC 75. Chambly Safe PQ 75 CHBY 76. Bertrand Safe PQ 76 BERT 77. Groulx Likely PQ 77 GROU 78. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 78 VAUD 79. Borduas Safe PQ 79 BORD 80. Orford Safe LIB 80 ORFO 81. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 81 RENE 82. La Prairie Leaning LIB 82 LAPR 83. LaFontaine Safe LIB 83 LAFO 84. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB 84 STRO 85. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 85 MAMA 86. Rimouski Safe PQ 86 RIMO 87. Vachon Toss up LIB/PQ 87 VACH 88. Repentigny Safe PQ 88 REPE 89. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 89 MILI 90. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 90 VIMO 91. La Pinière Safe LIB 91 LAPI 92. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 92 STLR 93. Châteauguay Likely LIB 93 CHAT 94. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 94 LVDR 95. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 95 MARG 96. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 96 PATR 97. Taschereau QS safe 97 TASH 98. Pontiac Safe LIB 98 PONT 99. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 99 JACA 100. Hull Safe LIB 100 HULL 101. Marquette Safe LIB 101 MARQ 102. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/QS 102 SHER 103. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 103 MVIC 104. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 104 WSTL 105. Taillon Likely PQ 105 TAIL 106. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 106 JMVI 107. Bonaventure Safe PQ 107 BONA 108. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 108 BOUS 109. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 109 ANLR 110. Acadie Safe LIB 110 ACAD 111. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 111 LAPO 112. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 112 MROU 113. Montarville Toss up LIB/PQ 113 MTRV 114. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 114 NODG 115. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 115 CAML 116. Gaspé Safe PQ 116 GASP 117. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/QS 117 SHSA 118. Viau Likely LIB 118 VIAU 119. Verdun Leaning LIB 119 VERD 120. Maurice-Richard Toss up LIB/QS 120 MAUR 121. Rosemont QS likely 121 ROSE 122. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS safe 122 HOMA 123. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS safe 123 SMSJ 124. Laurier-Dorion QS safe 124 LAUD 125. Gouin QS safe 125 GOUI 126. Mercier QS safe 126 MERC 127. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 127 IDLM 338Canada Quebec projection Updated October 6, 2026
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Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Bellechasse
Éric Duhaime
 C PCQ safe
2.
Beauce-Nord
Patricia Drouin
 C PCQ safe
3.
Beauce-Sud
Jonathan Poulin
 C PCQ safe
4.
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Renaud Labrecque
 C PCQ safe
5.
Portneuf
Marcel Bouchard
 C PCQ safe
6.
La Peltrie
Maïté Blanchette Vézina
 C PCQ safe
7.
Chauveau
Karim Elayoubi
 C PCQ safe
8.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Dominique Dumas
 C PCQ safe
9.
Montmorency
Marie-Josée Hélie
 C PCQ safe
10.
Côte-du-Sud
Frédéric Poulin
 C PCQ safe
11.
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
Caroline Simard
 C PCQ safe
12.
Lévis
Karine Laflamme
 C PCQ safe
13.
Charlesbourg
Éloïse Coulombe
 C PCQ safe
14.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Patrick Paquet
 C PCQ safe
15.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Guillaume Langlois
 C PCQ safe
16.
Mégantic
Jimmy Gagnon
 C PCQ likely
17.
Arthabaska-L’Érable
Tarek Henoud
 C PCQ likely
18.
Louis-Hébert
Marcos Archambault
 C PCQ leaning
19.
Champlain
Adriana Szalontai
 C Toss up PQ/CPQ
20.
Drummond–Bois-Francs
Charles Page
 PQ Toss up PQ/CPQ
21.
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
Élodie Murphy-Gauthier
 PQ Leaning PQ
22.
Maskinongé
Isabelle Blais
 PQ Likely PQ
23.
Huntingdon
Frédéric Laplante
 PQ Leaning PQ
24.
Richmond
Bernard Sévigny
 PQ Likely PQ
25.
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie
Natalie Bisaillon
 PQ Likely PQ
26.
Dubuc
Émile Simard
 PQ Likely PQ
27.
Roberval
Isabelle Thibeault
 PQ Likely PQ
28.
Daniel-Johnson
Nathalie Boisclair
 PQ Likely PQ
29.
Abitibi-Est
Stéphane Tremblay
 PQ Likely PQ
30.
Papineau
Isabelle Millette
 PQ Toss up LIB/PQ
31.
Jean-Lesage
Sol Zanetti
 QS QS safe
32.
Saint-François
Sylvie Tanguay
 PQ Leaning PQ
33.
Ungava
Sonia Caron
 PQ Likely PQ
34.
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques
Ariane Boyer
 PQ Safe PQ
35.
Argenteuil
Pierre Nantel
 PQ Likely PQ