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Quebec Liberal Party

Latest update: October 6, 2026
LeaderCharles Milliard
National popular vote in 202624.2%
Current vote projection24.2% ± 1.0%
Current number of MNA's40
Current seat projection40 [38-38]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 6, 2026 50 45 40 35 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2026 2.2 seat/% [40-40] 24% ± 1% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | October 6, 2026

22% 23% 24% 25% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 23.2% ▼ 24.2% ± 1.0% ▼ Max. 25.2% ▼ Probabilities % LIB October 6, 2026

Seat projection | October 6, 2026

38 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Probabilities % LIB October 6, 2026
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The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Liberal Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 1 JACA 2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 2 BALD 3. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 3 JMVI 4. Nelligan Safe LIB 4 NELL 5. Pontiac Safe LIB 5 PONT 6. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 6 NODG 7. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 7 DAMC 8. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 8 WSTL 9. LaFontaine Safe LIB 9 LAFO 10. Marquette Safe LIB 10 MARQ 11. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 11 STLR 12. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 12 MARG 13. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 13 MROU 14. La Pinière Safe LIB 14 LAPI 15. Acadie Safe LIB 15 ACAD 16. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 16 BOUS 17. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 17 VAUD 18. Chomedey Safe LIB 18 CHOM 19. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 19 MILI 20. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 20 LAPO 21. Fabre Safe LIB 21 FABR 22. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 22 VIMO 23. Hull Safe LIB 23 HULL 24. Gatineau Safe LIB 24 GATI 25. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 25 ANLR 26. Chapleau Safe LIB 26 CHAP 27. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB 27 STRO 28. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 28 LVDR 29. Orford Safe LIB 29 ORFO 30. Soulanges Safe LIB 30 SOUL 31. Viau Likely LIB 31 VIAU 32. Châteauguay Likely LIB 32 CHAT 33. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 33 BROM 34. Jean-Talon Leaning LIB 34 JTAL 35. Verdun Leaning LIB 35 VERD 36. La Prairie Leaning LIB 36 LAPR 37. Maurice-Richard Toss up LIB/QS 37 MAUR 38. Montarville Toss up LIB/PQ 38 MTRV 39. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/QS 39 SHSA 40. Vachon Toss up LIB/PQ 40 VACH 41. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ 41 PAPI 42. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/QS 42 SHER 43. Saint-François Leaning PQ 43 STFR 44. Huntingdon Leaning PQ 44 HUNT 45. Ungava Likely PQ 45 UNGA 46. Taillon Likely PQ 46 TAIL 47. Argenteuil Likely PQ 47 ARGE 48. Richmond Likely PQ 48 RCHM 49. Louis-Hébert PCQ leaning 49 LHEB 50. Blainville Likely PQ 50 BLAI 51. Groulx Likely PQ 51 GROU 52. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 52 ABIE 53. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 53 MVIC 54. Laurier-Dorion QS safe 54 LAUD 55. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS safe 55 SMSJ 56. Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ 56 DMON 57. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 57 CAML 58. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 58 IDLM 59. Rosemont QS likely 59 ROSE 60. Terrebonne Safe PQ 60 TERR 61. Mercier QS safe 61 MERC 62. Chambly Safe PQ 62 CHBY 63. Sanguinet Safe PQ 63 SANG 64. Granby Safe PQ 64 GRBY 65. Repentigny Safe PQ 65 REPE 66. Saint-Jean Safe PQ 66 STJN 67. Masson Safe PQ 67 MASS 68. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 68 PATR 69. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 69 LVSM 70. Vanier-Les Rivières PCQ safe 70 VALR 71. Daniel-Johnson Likely PQ 71 DAJO 72. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 72 TRIV 73. Les Plaines Safe PQ 73 LPLA 74. Mirabel Safe PQ 74 MIRA 75. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ 75 STHY 76. Prévost Safe PQ 76 PREV 77. Borduas Safe PQ 77 BORD 78. La Peltrie PCQ safe 78 LAPE 79. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 79 BEAN 80. Verchères Safe PQ 80 VERC 81. Champlain Toss up PQ/CPQ 81 CHPN 82. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Likely PQ 82 MLGL 83. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 83 CHIC 84. Bellefeuille Safe PQ 84 BELF 85. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Safe PQ 85 RDLT 86. Bertrand Safe PQ 86 BERT 87. Taschereau QS safe 87 TASH 88. Bonaventure Safe PQ 88 BONA 89. Charlesbourg PCQ safe 89 CHAR 90. L’Assomption Safe PQ 90 LASS 91. Lévis PCQ safe 91 LEVI 92. Roberval Likely PQ 92 ROBV 93. Maskinongé Likely PQ 93 MASK 94. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ safe 94 CHCH 95. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 95 STJR 96. Iberville Safe PQ 96 IBER 97. Gouin QS safe 97 GOUI 98. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ safe 98 LOTF 99. Gaspé Safe PQ 99 GASP 100. Beauharnois Safe PQ 100 BEAU 101. Chauveau PCQ safe 101 CHAU 102. Labelle Safe PQ 102 LABL 103. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS safe 103 HOMA 104. Drummond–Bois-Francs Toss up PQ/CPQ 104 DRUM 105. Mégantic PCQ likely 105 MEGA 106. Montmorency PCQ safe 106 MOMO 107. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Safe PQ 107 ROUY 108. Dubuc Likely PQ 108 DUBU 109. Côte-du-Sud PCQ safe 109 CÔDS 110. Richelieu Safe PQ 110 RCHL 111. Rimouski Safe PQ 111 RIMO 112. Joliette Safe PQ 112 JOLI 113. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 113 LASJ 114. Jean-Lesage QS safe 114 JLES 115. Berthier Safe PQ 115 BRTH 116. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 116 ABIO 117. Rousseau Safe PQ 117 ROUS 118. Nicolet-Bécancour PCQ safe 118 NICO 119. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré PCQ safe 119 CXCB 120. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 120 BEAS 121. Portneuf PCQ safe 121 PORT 122. Arthabaska-L’Érable PCQ likely 122 ARTH 123. Bellechasse PCQ safe 123 BELL 124. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 124 MAMA 125. Duplessis Safe PQ 125 DUPL 126. Jonquière Leaning PQ 126 JONQ 127. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 127 RENE 338Canada Quebec projection Updated October 6, 2026
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Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Jacques-Cartier
Gregory Kelley
 L Safe LIB
2.
Robert-Baldwin
Brigitte Garceau
 L Safe LIB
3.
Jeanne-Mance–Viger
Filomena Rotiroti
 L Safe LIB
4.
Nelligan
Monsef Derraji
 L Safe LIB
5.
Pontiac
André Fortin
 L Safe LIB
6.
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Désirée McGraw
 L Safe LIB
7.
D’Arcy-McGee
Elisabeth Prass
 L Safe LIB
8.
Westmount–Saint-Louis
Jennifer Maccarone
 L Safe LIB
9.
LaFontaine
Marc Tanguay
 L Safe LIB
10.
Marquette
Enrico Ciccone
 L Safe LIB
11.
Saint-Laurent
Valérie Assouline
 L Safe LIB
12.
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Michel Leblanc
 L Safe LIB
13.
Mont-Royal–Outremont
Michelle Setlakwe
 L Safe LIB
14.
La Pinière
Linda Caron
 L Safe LIB
15.
Acadie
André A. Morin
 L Safe LIB
16.
Bourassa-Sauvé
Madwa Nika Cadet
 L Safe LIB
17.
Vaudreuil
James Hughes
 L Safe LIB
18.
Chomedey
Madeleine Féquière
 L Safe LIB
19.
Mille-Îles
Virginie Dufour
 L Safe LIB
20.
Pierre-Laporte
David Bowles
 L Safe LIB
21.
Fabre
Marie Claude Fournier
 L Safe LIB
22.
Vimont-Auteuil
Louis Ialenti
 L Safe LIB
23.
Hull
Sacha Cannon
 L Safe LIB
24.
Gatineau
David Logue
 L Safe LIB
25.
Anjou–Louis-Riel
Nicolas Plourde
 L Safe LIB
26.
Chapleau
Michel Langevin
 L Safe LIB
27.
Sainte-Rose
Cécile Tremblay
 L Safe LIB
28.
Laval-des-Rapides
Caroline De Guire
 L Safe LIB
29.
Orford
Charles Milliard
 L Safe LIB
30.
Soulanges
Olivier Bertin-Mahieux
 L Safe LIB
31.
Viau
Frantz Benjamin
 L Likely LIB
32.
Châteauguay
Félix Rhéaume
 L Likely LIB
33.
Brome-Missisquoi
Frédéric Beauchemin
 L Likely LIB
34.
Jean-Talon
Julie White
 L Leaning LIB
35.
Verdun
Antoine Dionne Charest
 L Leaning LIB
36.
La Prairie
Sonia Ziadé
 L Leaning LIB
37.
Maurice-Richard
Nada Boumeftah
 L Toss up LIB/QS
38.
Montarville
Mathieu Lavoie
 L Toss up LIB/PQ
39.
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne
Benoit Clermont
 L Toss up LIB/QS
40.
Vachon
Affine Lwalalika
 L Toss up LIB/PQ
41.
Papineau
Isabelle Millette
 PQ Toss up LIB/PQ
42.
Sherbrooke
Stéphanie Vachon
 QS Toss up LIB/QS
43.
Saint-François
Sylvie Tanguay
 PQ Leaning PQ
44.
Huntingdon
Frédéric Laplante
 PQ Leaning PQ
45.
Ungava
Sonia Caron
 PQ Likely PQ
46.
Taillon
Sandra Hernandez
 PQ Likely PQ
47.
Argenteuil
Pierre Nantel
 PQ Likely PQ
48.
Richmond
Bernard Sévigny
 PQ Likely PQ
49.
Louis-Hébert
Marcos Archambault
 C PCQ leaning
50.
Blainville
Nadine Le Gal
 PQ Likely PQ
51.
Groulx
Marie-Claude Sarrazin
 PQ Likely PQ
52.
Abitibi-Est
Stéphane Tremblay
 PQ Likely PQ
53.
Marie-Victorin
Nicolas Marceau
 PQ Safe PQ