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Quebec Liberal Party

Latest update: August 28, 2026
LeaderCharles Milliard
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection21.4% ± 2.4%
Current number of MNA's18
Current seat projection31 [27-37]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 28, 2026 45 40 35 30 25 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 1.8 seat/% [27-37] 21% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | August 28, 2026

16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 19.0% ▼ 21.4% ± 2.4% ▼ Max. 23.8% ▼ Probabilities % LIB August 28, 2026

Seat projection | August 28, 2026

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2022 21 seats Min. 27 ▼ 31 ▼ Max. 37 ▼ Probabilities % LIB August 28, 2026
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The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Liberal Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 1 JACA 2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 2 BALD 3. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 3 NODG 4. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 4 WSTL 5. Nelligan Safe LIB 5 NELL 6. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 6 DAMC 7. Acadie Safe LIB 7 ACAD 8. Marquette Safe LIB 8 MARQ 9. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 9 MARG 10. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 10 BOUS 11. LaFontaine Safe LIB 11 LAFO 12. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 12 JMVI 13. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 13 STLR 14. Pontiac Safe LIB 14 PONT 15. Chomedey Safe LIB 15 CHOM 16. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 16 MROU 17. La Pinière Safe LIB 17 LAPI 18. Hull Safe LIB 18 HULL 19. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 19 VAUD 20. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 20 LAPO 21. Viau Safe LIB 21 VIAU 22. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB 22 ANLR 23. Mille-Îles Likely LIB 23 MILI 24. Fabre Likely LIB 24 FABR 25. Châteauguay Likely LIB 25 CHAT 26. Verdun Likely LIB 26 VERD 27. Soulanges Likely LIB 27 SOUL 28. Vimont-Auteuil Leaning LIB 28 VIMO 29. Gatineau Leaning LIB 29 GATI 30. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 30 ORFO 31. Laval-des-Rapides Toss up LIB/PQ 31 LVDR 32. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/QS 32 SHSA 33. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 33 HUNT 34. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 34 BROM 35. Laurier-Dorion Toss up LIB/QS 35 LAUD 36. Sainte-Rose Leaning CAQ 36 STRO 37. Sherbrooke Leaning PQ 37 SHER 38. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 38 MAUR 39. Richmond Leaning CAQ 39 RCHM 40. Jean-Talon Likely PQ 40 JTAL 41. Ungava Toss up PQ/CAQ 41 UNGA 42. Chapleau Likely CAQ 42 CHAP 43. Saint-François Likely PQ 43 STFR 44. Papineau Likely CAQ 44 PAPI 45. Blainville Toss up PQ/CAQ 45 BLAI 46. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 46 GROU 47. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 47 ROSE 48. Abitibi-Est Toss up PQ/CAQ 48 ABIE 49. Argenteuil Likely PQ 49 ARGE 50. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ 50 LHEB 51. Montmorency PCQ leaning 51 MOMO 52. Mégantic Leaning CAQ 52 MEGA 53. Vachon Likely PQ 53 VACH 54. Mercier QS safe 54 MERC 55. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 55 CAML 56. Taillon Likely PQ 56 TAIL 57. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 57 SMSJ 58. Montarville Leaning CAQ 58 MTRV 59. La Prairie Leaning CAQ 59 LAPR 60. Deux-Montagnes Leaning PQ 60 DMON 61. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 61 LASJ 62. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 62 IDLM 63. Bonaventure Safe PQ 63 BONA 64. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 64 PATR 65. Gouin QS safe 65 GOUI 66. La Peltrie PCQ likely 66 LAPE 67. Gaspé Safe PQ 67 GASP 68. Saint-Jean Likely PQ 68 STJN 69. Sanguinet Likely PQ 69 SANG 70. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning 70 HOMA 71. Taschereau QS leaning 71 TASH 72. Repentigny Toss up PQ/CAQ 72 REPE 73. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 73 MVIC 74. Masson Toss up PQ/CAQ 74 MASS 75. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 75 CHPN 76. Prévost Likely PQ 76 PREV 77. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 77 VALR 78. Iberville Leaning CAQ 78 IBER 79. Charlesbourg Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 79 CHAR 80. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 80 LVSM 81. Terrebonne Toss up PQ/CAQ 81 TERR 82. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 82 CHBY 83. Trois-Rivières Leaning CAQ 83 TRIV 84. Duplessis Toss up PQ/CAQ 84 DUPL 85. Bellefeuille Toss up PQ/CAQ 85 BELF 86. Bertrand Likely PQ 86 BERT 87. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 87 CÔDS 88. Les Plaines Toss up PQ/CAQ 88 LPLA 89. Saint-Hyacinthe Leaning PQ 89 STHY 90. Mirabel Toss up PQ/CAQ 90 MIRA 91. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning 91 LOTF 92. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 92 LASS 93. Abitibi-Ouest Leaning CAQ 93 ABIO 94. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 94 BEAU 95. Lévis Toss up CAQ/CPQ 95 LEVI 96. Maskinongé Toss up PQ/CAQ 96 MASK 97. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely CAQ 97 ROUY 98. Chauveau PCQ likely 98 CHAU 99. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Toss up PQ/CAQ 99 MLGL 100. Roberval Likely PQ 100 ROBV 101. Saint-Jérôme Leaning PQ 101 STJR 102. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up CAQ/CPQ 102 CHCH 103. Granby Likely CAQ 103 GRBY 104. Verchères Leaning PQ 104 VERC 105. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 105 JLES 106. Labelle Likely PQ 106 LABL 107. Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ 107 DRUM 108. Borduas Leaning CAQ 108 BORD 109. Chicoutimi Likely PQ 109 CHIC 110. Daniel-Johnson Likely CAQ 110 DAJO 111. Richelieu Likely PQ 111 RCHL 112. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 112 NICO 113. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Leaning PQ 113 RDLT 114. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Likely PQ 114 CXCB 115. Portneuf PCQ likely 115 PORT 116. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 116 BEAN 117. Bellechasse PCQ safe 117 BELL 118. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely 118 BEAS 119. Arthabaska-L’Érable Leaning PQ 119 ARTH 120. Rimouski Safe PQ 120 RIMO 121. René-Lévesque Toss up PQ/CAQ 121 RENE 122. Berthier Likely PQ 122 BRTH 123. Dubuc Likely PQ 123 DUBU 124. Jonquière Likely PQ 124 JONQ 125. Rousseau Toss up PQ/CAQ 125 ROUS 126. Joliette Safe PQ 126 JOLI 127. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 127 MAMA 338Canada Quebec projection Updated August 28, 2026
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Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Jacques-Cartier
Greg Kelley
 L Safe LIB
2.
Robert-Baldwin
Brigitte Garceau
 L Safe LIB
3.
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Désirée McGraw
 L Safe LIB
4.
Westmount–Saint-Louis
Jennifer Maccarone
 L Safe LIB
5.
Nelligan
Monsef Derraji
 L Safe LIB
6.
D’Arcy-McGee
Elisabeth Prass
 L Safe LIB
7.
Acadie
André A. Morin
 L Safe LIB
8.
Marquette
Enrico Ciccone
 L Safe LIB
9.
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Fred Beauchemin
 L Safe LIB
10.
Bourassa-Sauvé
Madwa-Nika Cadet
 L Safe LIB
11.
LaFontaine
Marc Tanguay
 L Safe LIB
12.
Jeanne-Mance–Viger
Filomena Rotiroti
 L Safe LIB
13.
Saint-Laurent
Marwah Rizqy [Elected as LIB]
 I Safe LIB
14.
Pontiac
André Fortin
 L Safe LIB
15.
Chomedey
Sona Lakhoyan Olivier [Elected as LIB]
 I Safe LIB
16.
Mont-Royal–Outremont
Michelle Setlakwe
 L Safe LIB
17.
La Pinière
Linda Caron
 L Safe LIB
18.
Hull
Suzanne Tremblay
 CA Safe LIB
19.
Vaudreuil
Marie-Claude Nichols
 L Safe LIB
20.
Pierre-Laporte
Isabelle Poulet [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe LIB
21.
Viau
Frantz Benjamin
 L Safe LIB
22.
Anjou–Louis-Riel
Karine Boivin Roy
 CA Likely LIB
23.
Mille-Îles
Virginie Dufour
 L Likely LIB
24.
Fabre
Alice Abou-Khalil
 CA Likely LIB
25.
Châteauguay
Marie-Belle Gendron
 CA Likely LIB
26.
Verdun
Alejandra Zaga-Mendez
 QS Likely LIB
27.
Soulanges
Marilyne Picard
 CA Likely LIB
28.
Vimont-Auteuil
Valérie Schmaltz
 CA Leaning LIB
29.
Gatineau
Robert Bussière
 CA Leaning LIB
30.
Orford
Gilles Bélanger [Elected as CAQ]
 I Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
31.
Laval-des-Rapides
Céline Haytayan
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ
32.
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne
Guillaume Cliche-Rivard
 QS Toss up LIB/QS
33.
Huntingdon
Carole Mallette
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
34.
Brome-Missisquoi
Isabelle Charest
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
35.
Laurier-Dorion
Andrès Fontecilla
 QS Toss up LIB/QS
36.
Sainte-Rose
Christopher Skeete
 CA Leaning CAQ
37.
Sherbrooke
Christine Labrie
 QS Leaning PQ
38.
Maurice-Richard
Haroun Bouazzi
 QS Leaning PQ
39.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Leaning CAQ
40.
Jean-Talon
Pascal Paradis
 PQ Likely PQ
41.
Ungava
Denis Lamothe
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
42.
Chapleau
Mathieu Lévesque
 CA Likely CAQ
43.
Saint-François
Geneviève Hébert
 CA Likely PQ
44.
Papineau
Mathieu Lacombe
 CA Likely CAQ
45.
Blainville
Mario Laframboise
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
46.
Groulx
Eric Girard
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
47.
Rosemont
Vincent Marissal [Elected as QS]
 I Toss up PQ/QS
48.
Abitibi-Est
Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
 I Toss up PQ/CAQ
49.
Argenteuil
Agnès Grondin
 CA Likely PQ
50.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
51.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ leaning
52.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Leaning CAQ
53.
Vachon
Ian Lafrenière
 CA Likely PQ