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Coalition avenir Québec

Latest update: August 28, 2026
LeaderChristine Fréchette
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection24.7% ± 3.1%
Current number of MNA's79
Current seat projection28 [8-49]

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 28, 2026 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% Majority: 64 seats Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 6.6 seat/% [8-49] 25% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | August 28, 2026

18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 21.6% ▼ 24.7% ± 3.1% ▼ Max. 27.8% ▼ Probabilities % CAQ August 28, 2026

Seat projection | August 28, 2026

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 3% 2% 1% Min. 8 ▼ 28 ▼ Max. 49 ▼ Majority 64 seats Probabilities % CAQ August 28, 2026
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The Road to 64 Seats | Coalition avenir Québec


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Papineau Likely CAQ 1 PAPI 2. Granby Likely CAQ 2 GRBY 3. Chapleau Likely CAQ 3 CHAP 4. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely CAQ 4 ROUY 5. Daniel-Johnson Likely CAQ 5 DAJO 6. Iberville Leaning CAQ 6 IBER 7. Borduas Leaning CAQ 7 BORD 8. Trois-Rivières Leaning CAQ 8 TRIV 9. Mégantic Leaning CAQ 9 MEGA 10. Richmond Leaning CAQ 10 RCHM 11. La Prairie Leaning CAQ 11 LAPR 12. Abitibi-Ouest Leaning CAQ 12 ABIO 13. Sainte-Rose Leaning CAQ 13 STRO 14. Montarville Leaning CAQ 14 MTRV 15. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 15 LASS 16. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 16 BEAU 17. Abitibi-Est Toss up PQ/CAQ 17 ABIE 18. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Toss up PQ/CAQ 18 MLGL 19. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 19 CHBY 20. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 20 GROU 21. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ 21 LHEB 22. Lévis Toss up CAQ/CPQ 22 LEVI 23. Mirabel Toss up PQ/CAQ 23 MIRA 24. René-Lévesque Toss up PQ/CAQ 24 RENE 25. Ungava Toss up PQ/CAQ 25 UNGA 26. Repentigny Toss up PQ/CAQ 26 REPE 27. Duplessis Toss up PQ/CAQ 27 DUPL 28. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 28 HUNT 29. Rousseau Toss up PQ/CAQ 29 ROUS 30. Blainville Toss up PQ/CAQ 30 BLAI 31. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up CAQ/CPQ 31 CHCH 32. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 32 NICO 33. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 33 CÔDS 34. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 34 VALR 35. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 35 CHPN 36. Masson Toss up PQ/CAQ 36 MASS 37. Maskinongé Toss up PQ/CAQ 37 MASK 38. Terrebonne Toss up PQ/CAQ 38 TERR 39. Les Plaines Toss up PQ/CAQ 39 LPLA 40. Bellefeuille Toss up PQ/CAQ 40 BELF 41. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Leaning PQ 41 RDLT 42. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 42 LVSM 43. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning 43 LOTF 44. Gatineau Leaning LIB 44 GATI 45. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 45 ORFO 46. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 46 BROM 47. Verchères Leaning PQ 47 VERC 48. Deux-Montagnes Leaning PQ 48 DMON 49. Vimont-Auteuil Leaning LIB 49 VIMO 50. Saint-Hyacinthe Leaning PQ 50 STHY 51. Charlesbourg Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 51 CHAR 52. Montmorency PCQ leaning 52 MOMO 53. Saint-Jérôme Leaning PQ 53 STJR 54. Sanguinet Likely PQ 54 SANG 55. Soulanges Likely LIB 55 SOUL 56. Laval-des-Rapides Toss up LIB/PQ 56 LVDR 57. Berthier Likely PQ 57 BRTH 58. Richelieu Likely PQ 58 RCHL 59. Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ 59 DRUM 60. Vachon Likely PQ 60 VACH 61. Saint-François Likely PQ 61 STFR 62. Bertrand Likely PQ 62 BERT 63. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely 63 BEAS 64. Jonquière Likely PQ 64 JONQ 65. Fabre Likely LIB 65 FABR 66. Chauveau PCQ likely 66 CHAU 67. Dubuc Likely PQ 67 DUBU 68. Labelle Likely PQ 68 LABL 69. Argenteuil Likely PQ 69 ARGE 70. Châteauguay Likely LIB 70 CHAT 71. Portneuf PCQ likely 71 PORT 72. Prévost Likely PQ 72 PREV 73. Sherbrooke Leaning PQ 73 SHER 74. Roberval Likely PQ 74 ROBV 75. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Likely PQ 75 CXCB 76. Mille-Îles Likely LIB 76 MILI 77. La Peltrie PCQ likely 77 LAPE 78. Chicoutimi Likely PQ 78 CHIC 79. Taillon Likely PQ 79 TAIL 80. Saint-Jean Likely PQ 80 STJN 81. Joliette Safe PQ 81 JOLI 82. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 82 MVIC 83. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 83 LAPO 84. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 84 LASJ 85. Gaspé Safe PQ 85 GASP 86. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 86 PATR 87. Arthabaska-L’Érable Leaning PQ 87 ARTH 88. Rimouski Safe PQ 88 RIMO 89. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 89 BEAN 90. Bellechasse PCQ safe 90 BELL 91. Bonaventure Safe PQ 91 BONA 92. Hull Safe LIB 92 HULL 93. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 93 IDLM 94. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 94 VAUD 95. La Pinière Safe LIB 95 LAPI 96. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 96 MAMA 97. Pontiac Safe LIB 97 PONT 98. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB 98 ANLR 99. Chomedey Safe LIB 99 CHOM 100. Jean-Talon Likely PQ 100 JTAL 101. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 101 CAML 102. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 102 JLES 103. Taschereau QS leaning 103 TASH 104. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 104 MAUR 105. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 105 ROSE 106. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 106 MROU 107. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning 107 HOMA 108. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 108 STLR 109. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 109 SMSJ 110. Verdun Likely LIB 110 VERD 111. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 111 JMVI 112. Gouin QS safe 112 GOUI 113. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/QS 113 SHSA 114. LaFontaine Safe LIB 114 LAFO 115. Marquette Safe LIB 115 MARQ 116. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 116 BOUS 117. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 117 MARG 118. Mercier QS safe 118 MERC 119. Viau Safe LIB 119 VIAU 120. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 120 WSTL 121. Laurier-Dorion Toss up LIB/QS 121 LAUD 122. Acadie Safe LIB 122 ACAD 123. Nelligan Safe LIB 123 NELL 124. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 124 DAMC 125. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 125 BALD 126. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 126 JACA 127. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 127 NODG 338Canada Quebec projection Updated August 28, 2026
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Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Papineau
Mathieu Lacombe
 CA Likely CAQ
2.
Granby
François Bonnardel
 CA Likely CAQ
3.
Chapleau
Mathieu Lévesque
 CA Likely CAQ
4.
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue
Daniel Bernard
 CA Likely CAQ
5.
Daniel-Johnson
André Lamontagne
 CA Likely CAQ
6.
Iberville
Audrey Bogemans
 CA Leaning CAQ
7.
Borduas
Simon Jolin-Barrette
 CA Leaning CAQ
8.
Trois-Rivières
Jean Boulet
 CA Leaning CAQ
9.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Leaning CAQ
10.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Leaning CAQ
11.
La Prairie
Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
 I Leaning CAQ
12.
Abitibi-Ouest
Suzanne Blais
 CA Leaning CAQ
13.
Sainte-Rose
Christopher Skeete
 CA Leaning CAQ
14.
Montarville
Nathalie Roy
 CA Leaning CAQ
15.
L’Assomption
François Legault
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
16.
Beauharnois
Claude Reid
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
17.
Abitibi-Est
Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
 I Toss up PQ/CAQ
18.
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie
Vacant
 Toss up PQ/CAQ
19.
Chambly
Jean-François Roberge
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
20.
Groulx
Eric Girard
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
21.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
22.
Lévis
Bernard Drainville
 CA Toss up CAQ/CPQ
23.
Mirabel
Sylvie D’Amours
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
24.
René-Lévesque
Yves Montigny
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
25.
Ungava
Denis Lamothe
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
26.
Repentigny
Pascale Déry
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
27.
Duplessis
Kateri Champagne Jourdain
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
28.
Huntingdon
Carole Mallette
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
29.
Rousseau
Louis-Charles Thouin
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
30.
Blainville
Mario Laframboise
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
31.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Martine Biron
 CA Toss up CAQ/CPQ
32.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Donald Martel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
33.
Côte-du-Sud
Mathieu Rivest
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
34.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Mario Asselin
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
35.
Champlain
Sonia LeBel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
36.
Masson
Mathieu Lemay
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
37.
Maskinongé
Simon Allaire
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
38.
Terrebonne
Catherine Gentilcore
 PQ Toss up PQ/CAQ
39.
Les Plaines
Lucie Lecours
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
40.
Bellefeuille
Vacant
 Toss up PQ/CAQ
41.
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques
Amélie Dionne
 CA Leaning PQ
42.
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
Marie-Louise Tardif
 CA Leaning PQ
43.
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Isabelle Lecours
 CA PCQ leaning
44.
Gatineau
Robert Bussière
 CA Leaning LIB
45.
Orford
Gilles Bélanger [Elected as CAQ]
 I Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
46.
Brome-Missisquoi
Isabelle Charest
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
47.
Verchères
Suzanne Roy
 CA Leaning PQ
48.
Deux-Montagnes
Benoit Charette
 CA Leaning PQ
49.
Vimont-Auteuil
Valérie Schmaltz
 CA Leaning LIB
50.
Saint-Hyacinthe
Chantal Soucy
 CA Leaning PQ
51.
Charlesbourg
Jonatan Julien
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
52.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ leaning
53.
Saint-Jérôme
Youri Chassin [Elected as CAQ]
 I Leaning PQ
54.
Sanguinet
Christine Fréchette
 CA Likely PQ
55.
Soulanges
Marilyne Picard
 CA Likely LIB
56.
Laval-des-Rapides
Céline Haytayan
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ
57.
Berthier
Caroline Proulx
 CA Likely PQ
58.
Richelieu
Jean-Bernard Émond
 CA Likely PQ
59.
Drummond–Bois-Francs
Sébastien Schneeberger
 CA Leaning PQ
60.
Vachon
Ian Lafrenière
 CA Likely PQ
61.
Saint-François
Geneviève Hébert
 CA Likely PQ
62.
Bertrand
France-Élaine Duranceau
 CA Likely PQ
63.
Beauce-Sud
Samuel Poulin
 CA PCQ likely
64.
Jonquière
Yannick Gagnon
 CA Likely PQ
65.
Fabre
Alice Abou-Khalil
 CA Likely LIB
66.
Chauveau
Sylvain Lévesque
 CA PCQ likely
67.
Dubuc
François Tremblay [Elected as CAQ]
 I Likely PQ
68.
Labelle
Chantal Jeannotte
 CA Likely PQ
69.
Argenteuil
Agnès Grondin
 CA Likely PQ
70.
Châteauguay
Marie-Belle Gendron
 CA Likely LIB
71.
Portneuf
Vincent Caron
 CA PCQ likely
72.
Prévost
Sonia Bélanger
 CA Likely PQ
73.
Sherbrooke
Christine Labrie
 QS Leaning PQ
74.
Roberval
Nancy Guillemette
 CA Likely PQ
75.
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
Kariane Bourassa
 CA Likely PQ
76.
Mille-Îles
Virginie Dufour
 L Likely LIB
77.
La Peltrie
Éric Caire
 CA PCQ likely
78.
Chicoutimi
Marie-Karlynn Laflamme
 PQ Likely PQ
79.
Taillon
Lionel Carmant
 CA Likely PQ
80.
Saint-Jean
Louis Lemieux
 CA Likely PQ
81.
Joliette
François St-Louis
 CA Safe PQ
82.
Marie-Victorin
Shirley Dorismond
 CA Safe PQ
83.
Pierre-Laporte
Isabelle Poulet [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe LIB
84.
Lac-Saint-Jean
Eric Girard
 CA Safe PQ
85.
Gaspé
Stéphane Sainte-Croix
 CA Safe PQ
86.
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Chantal Rouleau
 CA Safe PQ
87.
Arthabaska-L’Érable
Alex Boissonneault
 PQ Leaning PQ